It's has been more than 120 years since the invention of a motorized carriage, and more than 100 years since the invention of a semi-automated production line aimed at mass manufacturing of automobiles.
100 years ago an automobile was
- A metall chassi
- Four tires
- Engine
- Claxon
- Could take 2-4 people
- an average speed is 10 miles per hour.
100+ years later and more than 3BN in cumulative R&D investment, a car is
- A metall chassi
- Four tires
- Engine
- Claxon
- Could take 2-6 people
- average recorded speed in a dense city like New York is 5 miles per hour.
Does it really have to take 100+ years and so much of money and efforts to arrive at almost net-net result?
Yes, the car has become way better, faster, capable of carrying more stuff, more economic, comfortable to drive, whatever, but we expect a lot from the cars of the future, and what we are fed with is not much different from what's already in place.
All of the car manufacturers are somewhat in the process of
- substituting internal combusting engine for an electric engine
- adding computerized self-learning navigation and entertainment systems
- using advanced materials to decrease environmental impact.
If you look at anything that is being pushed now as the design of the future (Tesla is just for illustration purpose here, this issue is with any car manufacturer)
- has a driver that is looking at the front (so with so much of investment in computer vision, we are not intending to get rid off the steering wheel soon)
- caries up to 6 people while 45% of the population in the US are single, and 33% in Europe are single
- Able to go 100mph in 3 seconds with an average driving speed 7mph in London 5 mph in NY
The car of the future, shall consider the
- capabilities of the future (e.g. computer vision, navigation systems, e-mobility)
- Environment of the future (rising number of singles, on-demand mindset, mixed mobility needs (car – train – bicycle are a part of the same route)
- Needs of the future (delivery, shorter distances etc.)
Yes, the legislation is not there yet. Yes, the technology is not there yet, but the bigger question we have to ask, does it really have to be pushed so hard on new things, before they reflect the needs of the major part of the population…